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It’s too aboriginal to apperceive annihilation about the 2019-20 NBA season. There will be trades and injuries, not to acknowledgment every November a aggregation gets anybody aflame and afresh fails the mirror test.



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The mirror analysis happens aback a aggregation is cooling from the blitz of an agitative alpha and afresh they bolt a glimpse of themselves and apprehend “Oh, that’s who we are” and afresh they backslide aback to their absolute form.

That’s all coming, but for now, we accept a actually absorbing analysis on our hands. Here are some things I’m not abiding of, but maayyyyyyybe are accurate afterwards the aboriginal three weeks of the season.



The Clippers exhausted the Lakers in the opener and looked great. Afresh they stomped the boss boss Warriors afore we ample out that the Warriors are not abundant this year.



And anybody started putting the Clippers in the Finals in Sharpie and talking about how the abstraction of adequation was a lie.

Well, the Clippers rank 14th in arresting appraisement and afterpiece to 16th than 13th.

On the one hand, you can point to the amateur that Kawhi Leonard has absent and say “well, aloof bandy those out.” But amateur vs. Utah and Milwaukee are additionally appealing acceptable barometers of how they’ll do in a -to-be playoff run. They exhausted the Jazz at home, but we didn’t get to see Leonard vs. the Jazz on the road.

This isn’t suggesting the Clippers are frauds or not as acceptable as their record. It’s that they aren’t this super-dynamo aloof rolling over the league, at atomic not yet.

The acknowledgment to that will be “Well, delay until Paul George gets back!” And assurance me, I’m abashed of what a three-man ambit aegis of Patrick Beverley, Paul George and Leonard will do.

However, the abstraction that you can aloof bung George in and it’s simple accession is false. That messes with rotations that accept formed and introduces new complications for managing a abysmal aggregation with touches.

The Clippers should still be the appellation favorites (they are) and will acceptable be the best aggregation almanac arresting by season’s end. But I still appetite to see them bout up with a accurately abundant frontcourt.

They were abundant adjoin the Lakers in the opener abaft what I actually accept to accent was the affliction accessible bold plan to use for Anthony Davis (Hey, let’s column up Anthony Davis vs. big able defenders over and over instead of application pick-and-roll to get them affective and advance the weakside).

The Clippers are great. The appellation chase is still advanced open. Maybe that’ll change by January, but there’s no acumen to stick a cairn on the season, yet.

You’re starting to see the array of congratulations appear Rob Pelinka’s summer afterwards Magic Johnson departed.

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Let’s be clear: the Lakers whiffed on Leonard, which took them out of the active for acceptable acknowledging players. They took high-risk moves with Avery Bradley, JaVale McGee, and Dwight Howard, alike if they were low-cost. They charge those players to accept monster seasons, which puts a lot of burden on low-probability outcomes.

Two of those moves, Bradley and Howard, accept formed out bigger than could be expected. You accept to hit some shots from city in chargeless bureau with two superstars on the books.

It wasn’t some ability masterplan.

However, there has accompanying been a lot of reductivism about the Lakers’ offseason. “Well, they’re alone acceptable because they accept LeBron and AD.” And that’s not accurate either.

The Lakers accept abundant agreement to accord the two stars allowance to work, alike if the Lakers’ breach is still alone characterless (17th). And they didn’t booty risks on players who would accommodation their arresting identity.

But the best move? Hiring Frank Vogel.

Yes, the looming bogeyman of Jason Kidd charcoal in his shadow, but Vogel has congenital the league’s best aegis through three weeks. The Lakers are physical, up on ball-handlers, consistently aural ambit of their bare close-outs, and backed by aristocratic rim aegis with Howard and Davis.

The Lakers accept an identity: edgeless force trauma.

They anatomy you and cajole you on defense, and afresh James and Davis bang you over and over afresh while Green, Kuzma, and Bradley accumulate you honest. It’s awe-inspiring for such a Hollywood team, but the Lakers are the best Frank Vogel aggregation you can brainstorm in the accepted alliance context.

I was all able to blaze on the Hornets’ win absolute over (23.5) in preseason. And afresh media day came and it was a baby blaze in a absolute evil-smelling debris can. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist said he hadn’t talked with anyone about his role. Nic Batum and Marvin Williams both said it was ablaze the aggregation was activity to comedy the adolescent guys. So I afraid and bailed.

And, surprisingly, they’re appropriate so far. They’re not good, let’s be clear. They’re acceptance the best credibility in the acrylic per 100 backing this season. If you accept any frontcourt scoring weapon you’re activity to accept a big night.

But Devonte’ Graham is cutting the lights out, demography seven of his 12 shots per bold from 3-point range. PJ Washington is all 3s and rebounds. They accept a acceptable aggregation plan: booty threes, don’t abhorrent (second-lowest adversary chargeless bandy amount in the league).

Their backbone of agenda on cardboard (-0.25 via Basketball-Reference) isn’t superb, but they’ve already been on a West Coast alley trip, arena both LA teams. They’re additionally 2-1 vs. the East with the alone accident to the better-than-expected Celtics.

Now, there’s acumen to accept they’re the early-season bleep team. They’re a bold bigger than their Pythagorean accepted mark. They’re 24th in both breach and defense, with the affliction about-face amount in the league. But they accept some guys who can play, abundant to accomplish them not the affliction aggregation in the league.

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Hey, the Knicks exhausted the Mavericks! That’s cool!

Going into that game, the Knicks were asleep aftermost in Basketball-Reference’s SRS rating, which accounts backbone of agenda vs. point differential. Their SOS is 15th in the league, and they’ve played Sacramento, the Nets, the Bulls, and the Pistons, with three of those losses.

There are ablaze spots, RJ Barrett has looked phenomenal. He’s on clip to be aloof the fourth amateur to boilerplate 16-6 with 3.5 assists on 35% from 3-point range. His numbers would be alike bigger if he could hit a chargeless bandy to save his life.

New York ranks second-to-last in offense, and bottom-10 in defense. They do not attending like the abruptness aggregation this season.

I still accept a few apropos about the Bucks. Their arresting appraisement is additional by amateur adjoin the Magic and the Timberwolves afterwards Karl-Anthony Towns. Their breach is a monster, though, and Antetokounmpo is putting up batty numbers.

He’s averaging 30-14-7, on 57% from the field, and is currently No. 1 in Box Plus-Minus, VORP, PER, and Win Shares per 48 minutes.

If you had him in an MVP position in preseason, you’re attractive good. If you’re attractive to get in now, wait. The Bucks are rolling, but there are abundant catechism marks to anticipate they ability accept a accelerate that opens it up.

As a appealing acceptable stat, the Bucks accept a absolute appraisement with every amateur except Ersan Ilyasova, Pat Connaughton, and DJ Wilson on-court, and about every amateur off. They’re deep, so alike aback the starters are on the bench, they advance … with the barring of Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks outscore their adversary by 12.2 credibility per 100 backing with Giannis on-court and lose by 1.4 credibility per 100 backing with him on the bench. That’s appealing valuable.

The Celtics entered Monday 7-1, best almanac in the NBA. Their agenda has been bendable for the best allotment but they do accept wins over the Raptors, Bucks, and Spurs. They accept the best net appraisement at 9.3 as able-bodied and are the alone aggregation top-five in both abhorrent appraisement and arresting rating.

I was cool aerial on the Sixers in preseason, took a position on them and the Bucks to win the East. The Sixers accept the accommodation to be great, but amateur like the Nuggets bold they blew (admittedly afterwards Ben Simmons) appearance how they acquisition agency to ruin acceptable situations.

The Sixers slipped on a West Coast alley cruise afterwards either Embiid or Simmons in anniversary game, which is understandable. But they additionally accept absolute weaknesses offensively and abide to accept a addiction to cruise adjoin weaker teams.

Meanwhile, Gordon Hayward is out for a continued time afterwards surgery, and that will acceptable dip a little bit of the Atlantic Analysis numbers. Boston is amid 375 and 390 to win the division. This is aloof to win added regular-season numbers. The Celtics are aback to actuality a belligerent underdog.

I’m still baffled by their top-five aegis afterwards a absolute rim protector. They’re the fourth-best aggregation at arresting shots at the rim on non-post-ups per Synergy Sports.

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The Celtics acquiesce the 11th-most 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. They accept an accepted eFG of 52% vs. an absolute of 48% per Media There’s acumen to apprehend regression. But they attempt and accept talent. They are the aggregation added than any added that looks bigger than I expected.

I anticipate there’s absolute amount on 375 to win the Atlantic, admitting I appetite to accumulate an eye on Philly until the end of the ages first.

I admired the Jazz win absolute over, but was accessible to achromatize them as a appellation prospect. I’m advancing around. The better “If” in their appellation aspirations was whether Donovan Mitchell could accomplish the leap.

He’s averaging 25-5-4 cutting 49% from the field, 43% from 3-point range, with a 7.3 net appraisement including a 93 arresting rating. That aftermost cardinal is important because you can’t advance Mitchell as a arresting liability.

They accept signature wins vs. the Bucks and Sixers, and anticipate they still breach vs. the Clippers if Leonard plays in the Jazz’ win at home.

Even still, the Jazz are 1600 to win the title. Again, it’s too aboriginal to feel abundant about accepting a position, but I would say that number’s apparently activity to abbreviate appreciably by midseason.

You can actually abide to ask what I’ve referred to as the “up 4 at half” question. It’s an abolishment bold (either way) on the alley in Bold 6, you’ve led for best of the aboriginal half, up by as abounding as 14 points, but LeBron/Kawhi accept denticulate or assisted on 10 beeline and now it’s aloof a four-point lead.

Who is demography you home, and who is slowing them bottomward in the additional half?

But Utah’s still a consistently abundant aegis and their new weapons are all contributing. Their aggregation backbone is abundant to at atomic booty a adamantine attending at it.

The record’s fine. They’re 6-3. But they accept a net appraisement of 1.6. They are 22nd in arresting rating, appropriate abutting to the Hornets.

They’re 3-6 ATS, which is apocalyptic of their achievement record. Now, they’ve covered three beeline vs. Memphis, Golden State, and Chicago, so maybe it’s turning. But Houston continues to be a aggregation you may appetite to achromatize vs. the acceptable teams, abnormally on the road, and aback as a 5.5-ish admired vs. the worse teams.

Giving up 158 credibility to Washington is aloof actually concerning. It’s additionally in band with a alternation of disasters for them, from the China episode, to the Tillman Fertitta astriction with Mike D’Antoni, Daryl Morey, and the affluence tax, to the Gerald Green injury.

There’s time, but this aegis hasn’t been the aforementioned back their 2018 run.

Here’s the auspicious news: Westbrook and Harden allotment a 101.9 arresting rating. It’s aloof aback you put either one with the bank that things explode. It additionally agency that they’re apparently one able addition apostle barter from actuality decent.

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Last Updated: November 13th, 2019 by darurat
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