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Antonio A. Ver



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In this adventure of the civic conversation, the focus is on appraisement and on a few areas that affect electricity appraisement because revenues, costs, profits, and accompanying perspectives. The time anatomy for antecedent abstracts is 2006-2017, (2006=100) and (2012=100).

I. Revenues



It is the final customer who ultimately amateur three costs: distribution, transmission, and ability generation. What he pays are reflected in the electricity amount index. Based on the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA) survey, 4.800195% or added than 1/25 of all domiciliary expenditures in the Philippines go to electricity.



During the aeon beneath review, the EPI can be apparent to move up and bottomward about the 120.32 average, from 96.2 in January 2006 to 133.7 in December 2017. Thus, its estimated beforehand is about 38.98% for those 12 years, or 3.25% yearly. Therefore, it can be said that the industry revenues are accretion by 3.25%, to be calm way afterwards the electricity is delivered and used.

II. Costs

While revenues are rising, the costs are additionally rising, added steadily in fact, as apparent beneath in the blueprint of the Customer Amount Basis (CPI)- Philippines-All Items, the overarching admeasurement of CPI. It is based on a anchored bassinet of appurtenances and services, several hundreds of them. There is a sub-CPI for Electricity, Water, Gas and Added Fuels. Moreover, there is the electricity amount basis (EPI).

Continuation of the “Policy Framework for the Electric Ability Industry of the Philippines’ NIC-hood: Quo Vadis?” INQUIRER.net, November 19, 2018/.

President & CEO, H&WB Asia Pacific (Pte Ltd) Corp.www.hwbasiapacific.net, and Chairman of Ability Marketplace & Barter Corp. (“PMEx”), www.PMEx.ph.

As the table beneath indicates, the beforehand amount of the CPI is college than the beforehand amount of the EPI. Its estimated beforehand is about 54% for those 12 years, or 4.5% yearly. Therefore, it can be said that the admission in industry costs is college than industry revenues by 1.25%, to be paid in beforehand afore any electricity can be generated.

During the aeon beneath review, the CPI can be apparent to move up and bottomward about the 126.23 average, from 98.1 in January 2006 to 148.6 in December 2017. Thus, its estimated beforehand is about 54.03% for those 12 years, or 4.5% yearly. Therefore, it can be said that the industry costs are accretion by 4.5%, to be calm way afterwards the electricity is delivered and used.

With electricity included in the CPI basket, logically, electricity prices underperformed the blow of the alternative in the bazaar basket. (Infra. Revenues). Essentially, this can announce accident of bread-and-butter ability of the players in the electricity business. (Supra. Profits).

III. Profits

Without adorable anon at the financials of alone firms, one can infer what affectionate of profits the electricity players are authoritative by adorable at the rate-of-return abject (RORB).

Return on amount abject (RORB) is an accustomed approved appraisement adjustment acclimated by utilities worldwide. Beneath this method, the account abutting is accustomed to set a amount that makes accessible a defined akin of profits that is alleged the amount of acknowledgment base. It involves presenting affidavit of the amount of assets acclimated in the business, in which the RORB is based.

In the Philippines, the amount of acknowledgment abject is generally mentioned as 12%. This agency that the account abutting is accustomed to accomplish up to 12% in profits, based on the assets acclimated in the business.

On May 5, 1993, Executive Adjustment No. 86 adapted the amount of acknowledgment abject (profits) of the Civic Ability Corporation (NAPOCOR) from 10% to 12%. Of course, the 12% is to be accepted as a best adequate absolute aloft the anemic of government intervention. But, the EO accurately mentioned alone NAPOCOR. Yet, accurately or wrongly, the 12% has acquired absorption in the minds of many.

However, the absoluteness is that the RORB trend is downward, buttressing the suspicion that the bread-and-butter ability of the players in the electricity is absolutely bottomward abroad from their hands. (Infra. Revenues).

In a contempo decision, a RORB of 10.37% in a Ability Supply Agreement is what the Energy Regulatory Commission allows the appellant to make, afterwards award out that its assets is formed out of 27.5% adopted money and 72.5% equity. Aback the lenders of the 27.5% allegation alone 5.5%; thus, the ERC cardinal says that the disinterestedness owners are advantaged alone to about 12.23% return. In sum, the firm’s adequate RORB is alone 10.37%.

In the accustomed example, 72.5% debt at 5.5% and 27.5% disinterestedness at 12.23% after-effects in an RORB of alone 7.3508%. But, that is accepting advanced in the discussion. (Supra).

Out of necessity, the RORB is there to acquiesce the ability bearing business to pay its lenders on time. To aegis the accessible interest, a alternate triennial analysis of assets forms allotment of the blank agreement on RORB.

To accomplish 10% afterwards taxes, a abutting has to accomplish 15% afore taxes. To pay 5% absorption on, say, 70% of its capital, to achieve its expenses, and to pay its dollar obligations to raw abstracts suppliers agency that the abutting has to set its gross allowance at about 20%. Lower than that, the appropriate amount of acknowledgment may not be met, sending a arresting that it is bigger to be in addition business.

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Recall that the EPI (3.25 %) beforehand amount is lower than that of the CPI (4.5%), aural the aeon from 2006-2017. This agency that amount increases are way aloft acquirement increases during the period. Yet always, debt acquittal covenants allegation to be honored.

Through the years, the RORB continues to advance to account the consumer, while confined as a assurance net adjoin accretion prices. While technically it is a acknowledgment on assets, its estimation now is afterpiece to acknowledgment on equity.

IV. Factors Affecting After-tax Profits

A. Fisher Aftereffect Hypothesis

When borrowing money from a lending institution, the applicant knows that afar from the  quoted  interest,  he  must  pay  for  other  charges  like  the  service  charge.  The

borrower additionally knows that the best the lender charge delay to get his money back, then, the borrower charge pay a college amount than if the cat-and-mouse time were shorter.

The acumen actuality the appraisement of the loan, or absorption rate, is accountable to the Fisher aftereffect (Irving Fisher, 1930), arising anon from the alleged Fisher equation, to wit, interestnominal= interestreal aggrandizement expectations, which is the arrangement for all equations in finance.

In a nutshell, the Fisher blueprint says that the absorption amount embodies two important components: the amount of accident and, the amount of time. (Stephen Ross, Corporate Finance). And, so it is with the appraisement of electricity: there is a amount of accident and the amount of time.

Considering that a ample allocation of the assets of a ability bulb is adopted funds, therefore, the ability bearing industry is accountable to the Fisher effect. Therefore, the amount paid by final consumers contains two important components: the amount of time and the amount of risk, viz., on hindsight, pricenominal = pricereal inflationactual. Therefore, pricereal = pricenominal – inflationactual. Applied to electricity prices, the absolute amount is according to the nominal (quoted) amount beneath inflation. Thus, afterwards deducting aggrandizement from the final amount already paid by the consumer, what is larboard is the absolute amount of electricity, on hindsight. However, on anticipation or afore the fact, aggrandizement expectations are but conjectures.

By definition, aggrandizement refers to the allotment change in the customer amount basis (CPI) over a accustomed period, usually, one year. (Supra. The Absolute Amount of Electricity).

The table shows the Fisher aftereffect on the accepted best RORB of 10.37%. (Supra. Profits). Alone abstracts appropriately accepted by the PSA are reflected in the table. That explains why alone 2013-2017 are included in the table.

Nevertheless, the table is adequate to allegorize that the aftereffect of aggrandizement on the amount of acknowledgment is to abrade it, irrespective of what are included as allotment of the amount base.

B. The Absolute Amount of Electricity

This is artlessly a allegory (Chart III) of the electricity amount basis at a accustomed time as adjoin the electricity amount basis amount at the above ages a year ago.   Hence, in abstruse terms, it is an absolute delineation that is accurate alone for months that are absolutely one year apart: annihilation more, annihilation less. (Infra. Fisher Aftereffect Hypothesis).

To accomplish faculty of the information, the EPI aggrandizement amount can be compared adjoin the CPI aggrandizement rate. The allegation announce that out of 144 months, there were 34 months that the EPI aggrandizement amount exceeded the CPI aggrandizement rate, two times that they were equal, and 108 times that the EPI aggrandizement amount was lower than the CPI aggrandizement rate. In the blueprint below, all observations beneath the aught band denote the 108 instances aback the EPI aggrandizement amount fell beneath the CPI aggrandizement rate, while those aloft the aught band denotes the 34 times that the EPI aggrandizement amount was college than the CPI aggrandizement rate. At alone alert are aback their year-to-year changes the same.

To analysis the statistical acceptation of this, one can accomplish a chi-square test. This leads to the cessation this is statistically cogent at 95% akin of aplomb (critical value=3.841).

Since the chi-square is additionally a analysis of normality, the analysis can additionally achieve that the addition differences amid the EPI and the CPI from 2006-2017 are not accustomed and aggregate a statistical pattern: the EPI changes abatement abaft the CPI aggrandizement rate. Recall the Fisher blueprint area the accolade for basic is according to the absolute acknowledgment to basic beneath inflation. In no ambiguous terms, the absolute acknowledgment to the investors in the electricity business is falling from 2006-2017.

C. The Purchasing Ability of the Peso

In beeline form, the blueprint aloft depicts the purchasing ability of the peso from 2006- 2017.

The purchasing ability of the becoming Peso is aloof the cardinal 100 assorted by alternate or multiplicative changed of the CPI. This agency that the purchasing ability of the Peso goes south aback the CPI goes north. And aback the blueprint shows a ascent CPI from 2006-2017; therefore, the purchasing ability of the Peso is activity in the added direction.

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In added specific terms, a CPI (2006=100) of 151.1 in December 2018 agency that that the purchasing ability of the Peso has collapsed to 66.23 centavos aback 2006, as computed from 100/151, area the allotment is .662252.

V. Disclosures

A. The Gordon model

The mathematics of the Gordon model, that is, adding the aftermost account EPI by the ancient account EPI again deducting 1 from the caliber is the adjustment acclimated to compute for the beforehand amount for 2006-2017. The aftereffect is the above as that of the Laspeyres formula, which the PSA uses to actuate the aggrandizement rate.

B. Projections for 2018-2029

In collapsed form, the anniversary projections for 2018-2029 are accustomed below.

C. Back-testing the EPI Projections

When the (2006=100) alternation was discontinued afterwards June, the EPI growing average   is 139.78 for 2018, based on Table V below.

In conclusion, the anniversary boilerplate antecedent works able-bodied for the electricity amount index.

D. Forecasting EPI for December 2018

Using the aloft table, the December 2018 anticipation with its aerial and lower banned at the 90%, 95%, and 99% aplomb intervals are boxed in the table below. The beforehand amount is .2707% a month.

The beggarly EPI (2006=100) anticipation for December 2018 is 144.22.  The 90%   confidence breach is 138.46-149.98. The 95% aplomb breach is 137.36-151.08. At the 99% aplomb interval, it can go as low as 135.19 or as aerial as 153.25. The growing 12- ages boilerplate for 2018 is 141.5. Application the aloft projections of the (2006=100) series, they betoken that the aggrandizement amount in December 2018 is 7.9%.

A newly-rebased EPI (2012=100) is now available. The new alternation runs from January 2012 through November 2018. It has 88 entries with an boilerplate of 98.4 and a accepted aberration of 4.670288. Out of necessity, the EPI bump for December 2018 (2012=100) comes from these 88 EPI values, which alone the “black swan” years from 2006-2011.

The forecasting action stands on the Efficient Bazaar Antecedent (EMH) of Nobel laureate Eugene Fama which holds that accessible advice drives prices and accordingly prices reflect all accessible advice at the time. Thus, the best contempo accessible electricity amount is the starting point for bump accountable to change as added new advice arrives. (Fama, 1967).

Using all the 88 rebased EPI ethics actualization on the PSA website as (2012=100), the beggarly EPI anticipation generated for December 2018 is 102.98. The aerial and lower banned depend on the absurdity or akin of acceptation that the clairvoyant accepts.

At the 90% aplomb interval, it can go from 102.18 to 103.77. At the 95% aplomb interval, it can go from 102.03 to 103.92. At the 99% aplomb interval, it can go from

101.73 to 104.77. All the above abstracts are independent in the table below.

Consequently, the EPI boilerplate basis for the year is 101.5 and the adumbrated December aggrandizement amount is 7%, afterwards applying .002707 account beforehand on the (2012=100) November EPI.

A. The Affective Boilerplate Framework

The affective boilerplate (MA) antecedent is declared to be advantageous in audition balderdash runs or adequate times, and buck runs or bad times application the Affective Boilerplate Convergence- Divergence theory. Accordingly, aback the MA for 20 periods is greater than the MA for 10 periods, which in about-face is college than the MA for 5 periods, again the bazaar is experiencing adequate times (bull run) in prices. Application (2006=100) data, the electricity bazaar is activity through adequate times at the end of December 2017, for the simple acumen that electricity prices are convalescent afterwards actuality larboard abaft by the added items in the consumers’ amount list.

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As the Chart shows, the anniversary affective boilerplate (MA-3; dejected line) is superimposed on the business aeon affective boilerplate (MA-37; orange line).

For the aeon beneath review, the 11 crossover or affair credibility over 12 years announce that electricity prices can be absolutely frisky.

The abutting apparent crossover point aback the two affective averages accommodated can be anytime in the additional bisected of 2019. July, October, and December are the best bets, if and aback electricity prices fall. The best adequate book is for the anniversary affective boilerplate to apply advancement burden on the business aeon affective average. Afterwards all, it has to antithesis abundant absent arena aback 2006.

VI. Recapitulation

To blanket up this adventure of the civic conversation, it hereby averred that the acquirement account for 2006-2017 looks adequate at aboriginal pass, with its boilerplate anniversary beforehand of 3.25%. (Infra. Table I). However, the amount account shows that the boilerplate beforehand of prices for all items was 4.5%. (Infra, Table II) over the period. Because that the costs are incurred beforehand than revenues, it takes adequate affluence to get accomplished a banknote breeze squeeze.

Sine qua non, the “luck of the Irish” comes in the anatomy of the RORB that allows profits, revenues bare costs, to be based on the amount of assets deployed in the business, about acknowledgment on assets (ROA). While a best 12% RORB based on disinterestedness is accustomed beneath absolute rules, aggrandizement is consistently an cutting agency that eats into profits afterwards tax.

In summary, 2006-2012 cannot be actual adequate years for the electricity business, especially, the ability bearing developers who get beneath than bisected (about 48%) of what consumers pay for, as an accustomed being can analysis at the aback of his electricity bill. On balance, the appeal for added electricity increases revenues over time, but those admission costs in the concise and cannot be abiding over the abiding after accretion the accommodation to aftermath added electricity to accumulate clip with accretion demand, way afore it happens.

VII. Affective Forward!

In the face of the allegation to bifold up on the bearing accommodation alee to 2029, there is an optimism that new players will acquisition the business adorable to put big sums into it, alike as the added items in the CPI bazaar bassinet extend bigger returns, aggrandizement advised or not.

On the added hand, consumers appetite lower electricity bills, as added prices in the Philippines bazaar rise.

On the one hand, the producers accept to pay for fuel, supplies, and added expenses, afore any kilowatt of electricity is produced. In the face of college prices whether occasioned by barter amount changes or not, the best RORB of 12% keeps ability breeding stations afloat, but addition charge ultimately pay for the costs. Indeed, accretion appeal is a absolution if one can accumulate with the assembly accommodation appropriate and the prices of inputs that admission faster than the revenues do.

Through adequate times and bad, the industry players consistently carefully administer their role as able-bodied as they can. That clue almanac is the “silver lining” that any broker will accede as adorable about the industry in the years to come. That gives achievement for possibly lower prices in the approaching aback added debt costs becomes available. (Infra, Profits).

Lest the amiss impressions persist, it deserves acknowledgment that the ability bearing industry’s anonymous role is to mandatorily accord the debts owed according to agenda or abroad aggregate comes down, including their equity. That move is a affected one, because it is the creditors who can put in added money than anybody else, in adjustment to get the business started.

To abutting this episode, EPI forecasts are mentioned angrily for December 2018 and for 2029, based on analytic trend, not persuasion.

For this advancing year-end, an EPI (2012=100) of 102.98 is what the numbers indicate; that is amid 102.03 and 103.92, bold that 5% absurdity is acceptable. The closing denotes a 2.98% admission in electricity prices from the EPI 2012 boilerplate and a December 2018 aggrandizement amount of 7%. (Infra. Table VII).

On the added hand, the trend according to the EPI (2006=100) discontinued alternation credibility to an EPI of 144.2, advertence a 44.2 admission from the boilerplate EPI in 2006 and 7.9% aggrandizement for December 2018. (Infra. Table VI).

For the best appellation forecasts, advanced to 2029 indicates that the electricity amount basis will be about bifold than they were in 2006. (Infra. Table IV).

Whether the forecasts appear accurate or not is accessory to the civic chat itself. Fast-forward, it is important to appear calm to a civic accord on issues surrounding ability generation, amid others. Who knows, maybe a accord can be crafted appear a triennial adjournment on amount increases, as proposed accordingly a few decades ago by the economists John Kenneth Galbraith and Nicole Salinger?

With this additional alarm for a civic conversation, the die is cast. Either it happens or the country is to idly watch prices acceleration in the years to come. The abutting call: award intelligent, absolute solutions that can appear through; neither whims nor palliatives.

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