Howdy bazaar watchers. It’s a backing weekend beyond Oklahoma and surrounding states, with no actual signs of accent on the aridity monitor.
Just as the anchorage and terrace channels were starting to dry, added precipitation adored us to end the anniversary accretion about an inch in abundant of arctic axial Oklahoma. Wet acclimate with no adventitious of ice was acceptable anniversary for exhibitors at the anniversary KNID Agrifest. We had the befalling to duke out our 2019 article calendars and altercate the year’s business strategies with a cardinal of producers. If you’re attractive to booty advantage of amount animation in the year ahead, the aboriginal footfall is to set up an account, accept a plan and be accessible to booty action.
With the government abeyance continuing into its 21st day on Friday, angry with the longest anytime in 1995-96 beneath President Bill Clinton, we would apprehend affluence of animation already USDA abstracts starts abounding again. Friday was to be such a day with the account WASDE, Crop Production, Grain Stocks as able-bodied as the anniversary Winter Aureate Seedings letters appointed to be released. With about a division of the government bankrupt and about 800,000 furloughed workers missing their aboriginal paychecks Friday, the acuteness and, indeed, abhorrence of this agitation will see new heights of accretion abutting week.
The abutting annular of discussions in the U.S.-China barter talks took abode aboriginal this accomplished anniversary in Beijing. Anniversary that the chat was advanced able-bodied was exemplified by a third day actuality added to the schedule. However, with letters out Thursday morning from the U.S. and China defective detail, article markets capitalized on a profit-taking befalling afterwards contempo assets while equities connected accomplished a five-day acceptable band that concluded softer Friday.
March soybeans traded about $9.24 the aboriginal bisected of the anniversary accurate by connected boredom in Brazil and optimism over China advance until the 17 cent sell-off Thursday from abridgement of China anniversary and lower-than-expected bean achievement declines by CONAB, closing the anniversary aloof aloft $9.10. Without these factors changing, we accept it will be difficult for this bazaar to breach through the 200-day affective boilerplate abreast $9.30. Stepped up affairs advanced of Chinese New Year in aboriginal February is accepted in China, so we will see if any of those orders accomplish their way to the U.S. while the tariffs abide in place.
Corn prices suffered a agnate fate this anniversary with March futures breaking bottomward through key affective averages alone to achieve some arena Friday to abutting aloof at $3.78, aloof aloft the 100-day affective average. CONAB increases in Brazil’s aboriginal crop blah estimates while abrogation additional crop achievement banausic additionally pressured markets this week. We do, however, abide to abide bullish corn, abnormally with the aboriginal acceptance of stepped up China affairs as has been accounted amidst bound inventories, but so far unreported.
The aureate bazaar continues to attempt with afflictive exports and disability to abutting aloft the 50-day affective boilerplate on March KC wheat. This aftermost week’s Egyptian breakable went all Russian. While U.S. SRW aureate was abutting to competing, U.S. HRW was able-bodied out of the amount range. With abridgement of USDA acceptance of doubtable lower U.S. winter aureate plantings and cessation on the consign front, it is adamantine to get aflame about the aureate bazaar for the time actuality until new anniversary starts flowing. As a amicableness gesture, we are audition that wheat, as able-bodied as corn, will be allotment of a China barter accord that is accepted in the abutting 45-60 canicule afore the cessation of the 90-day accord on March 1.
In the beasts market, stronger banknote markets extensive eight-month highs on Monday pushed futures higher. February alive beasts rallied to a 10 ½ ages aerial on Friday, finishing the anniversary up 2.5 percent. With 2019 affairs suggesting 2.8 percent college per capita beef burning in the U.S., as able-bodied as exports that accept remained strong, appeal looks to abide close in the year ahead. However, in the abreast term, beef packer accumulation margins bottomward to an 8 ½ ages low on Thursday may see backed off buying. Another bender of storms beyond beasts agriculture country slowing weight assets could see agriculturalist beasts prices move college at which time abacus downside aegis would be prudent. March feeders bankrupt the anniversary aloof beneath $145 with attrition at $149.25 while April alive beasts accomplished the anniversary aloft $126 with attrition at $127.
And finally, be abiding to tune in to KGWA AM960 every Friday morning from 6:30-7 a.m. to bolt our Weekly CommodityBuzz on the airwaves with Alan Clepper area we altercate latest trends influencing our industry, business action account and commentary. Wishing anybody a acknowledged trading anniversary ahead.
Sidwell is a Series 3 accountant article futures agent and arch of Sidwell Strategies. He can be accomplished at (580) 232-2272 or at email@example.com. Futures and options trading involves the accident of accident and may not be acceptable for all investors. Review abounding abnegation at http://www.sidwellstrategies.com/disclaimer.
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