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As with added billow stocks that accept raced college this year amidst the coronavirus bazaar meltdown, Coupa Software (NASDAQ: COUP) is a big winner. Up over 50% year to date afterwards its budgetary 2021 aboriginal division (the three months concluded April 30, 2020), some investors may feel that the baiter may accept been missed. 



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That’s not necessarily the case. Admitting aerial appeal due to organizations adapting to work-from-home and shelter-in-place orders is now added than priced into the allotment price, Coupa Software is adverse some headwinds forth with its barter due to the accepted accompaniment of the all-around economy. And in animosity of those headwinds, the aggregation is still growing boss fast. It is priced for an uptick after on, but this could be a awful assisting billow software banal bottomward the road.

For those with abundant time to wait, Coupa is still a buy — although an asterisk is needed.



Coupa is a business absorb administration and e-procurement software provider. Admitting it contends with far beyond software companies in this amplitude — including SAP, Oracle, and WorkDay (among others) that action some overlapping casework — Coupa has consistently been ranked a baton amid its aeon by tech advisers IDC and Gartner.  



There’s annihilation sexy-sounding about managing expenses, but recessionary times accomplish it added important than anytime before. Add to the mix the coronavirus-related lockdown that abounding acquisition themselves in, and it’s no admiration that Coupa’s cloud-delivered account that enables absorb administration from alien locations (i.e., from home) is in aerial demand. Afterwards growing sales 50% aftermost year, the aggregation got 2020 off to a abundant alpha and congenital added on that momentum.  

Metric

Three Months Concluded April 30, 2020

Three Months Concluded April 30, 2019

Change

Revenue

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$119 million

$81.3 million

47%

Gross accumulation margin

64.1%

66.4%

2.3 pp

Adjusted net income

$14.5 million

$2.15 million

574%

Free banknote flow

$11.8 million

$16.1 million

(27%)

Pp = allotment point. Data source: Coupa Software.  

The aggregation did booty a hit on gross accumulation margins (revenue beneath amount of service) as able-bodied as chargeless banknote breeze (revenue beneath banknote operating and basic expenses) due to some disruption from the communicable as able-bodied as some payments accompanying to its convertible debt. All told, though, it was a solid alpha to what has angry into an animal year for many. 

Coupa appear a cardinal of aboriginal barter who active assimilate its belvedere during Q1, and it expects added to do so as the year progresses. However, arresting with the bread-and-butter crisis is causing some delays. Admitting it has absolutely a few deals accessible to go, the furnishings of COVID-19 are causing abounding organizations to abeyance for the time actuality afore they about-face over to Coupa’s platform. As a result, the absorb administration belvedere thinks that inking new agreements will aces up after in the year as the crisis subsides.

As to specifics, second-quarter acquirement advice implies a 25% acceleration from a year ago, and full-year budgetary 2021 advice a 26% increase. It’s a added than admirable outlook, abnormally accustomed the accepted business environment, admitting a aciculate deceleration from what was aloof reported.

I wouldn’t be abashed to see the numbers advance afresh in a division or two, though. Afterwards all, abounding organizations accept had to benumb spending on new projects to administer banknote breeze crunches, but as the bearings eases, absorb administration software like Coupa — that can advice not aloof administer expenses, but additionally abate and criterion them adjoin the spending of competitors — should appear into focus for abounding who accept been apathetic to amend to the cloud. 

A agenda of attention — this is a premium-priced stock. Based on full-year guidance, shares are trading for 28.5 times trailing-12-month revenue. And admitting the gross allowance is aerial on casework rendered as it is with added billow accretion firms, antithesis banknote is reinvested aback into the business to aerate growth. Simply put, I apprehend this to be a awful airy banal activity forward.

Nevertheless, Coupa has abounding clamminess on its antithesis area ($706 actor in banknote and concise securities, $572 actor in debt that can be adapted into stock) to abide growing. If you buy, my accepted advocacy applies: Keep those positions baby and leave yourself allowance to acquirement added after on.

Nicholas Rossolillo and his audience accept no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Workday. The Motley Fool owns shares of Coupa Software. The Motley Fool recommends Gartner. The Motley Fool has a acknowledgment policy.

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Last Updated: June 22nd, 2020 by admin
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