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1. Finish in the fourth quarter. Here’s a dark analysis of which aggregation is which:
Team A: 29.9 points/game (5th), 19.4 credibility allowed/game (4th), 4th in DVOATeam B: 24.6 points/game (15th), 22.7 credibility allowed/game (11th), 14th in DVOA
The Bears are Aggregation A, and the Vikings are Aggregation B. The point actuality being: The Bears are, on paper, a bigger aggregation than the Vikings — and, actually, it’s not decidedly close.
But what the Vikings accept that the Bears don’t is acquaintance acceptable together. While Kirk Cousins wasn’t on this aggregation aftermost year, the aforementioned amount playmakers remain: Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph on offense; Harrison Smith, Anthony Barr (who’s ambiguous for Sunday’s game), Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter on defense. Those guys led the Vikings to the NFC Championship bold a year ago, which included that amazing win over the New Orleans Saints in the bounded round.
Minnesota, as an offense, isn’t clearly bigger in the fourth analysis (5.6 yards/play) than the added three periods, but they’re not worse than their full-game boilerplate (5.8 yards/play). Their defense, on the added hand, is at its best in the final 15 minutes, acceptance 4.7 yards/play, lower than the 5.3 yards/play they’ve accustomed this season.
The Bears, meanwhile, accept struggled in the fourth analysis on breach (4.9 yards/play, about one backyard beneath than their analysis average) and aegis (7.0 yards/play, two yards added than their analysis average). Matt Nagy and this aggregation can do affluence over the aboriginal 45 account to accomplish abiding it’s not a one-possession bold in the fourth quarter, but alike if that’s the case, they’ll charge to be bigger bottomward the amplitude to exhausted Minnesota.
2. Accomplish big plays on defense. Thielen has 100 or added accepting yards in eight of his nine amateur this year, while Diggs has gone over 90 yards in bisected of his eight games. While Bryce Callahan and Kyle Fuller are arena at Pro Bowl levels and ability actual able-bodied be able of shutting both receivers down, the apprehension actuality is that Thielen and Diggs will get their yards on Sunday night. What will key the Bears’ defense, then, will be big plays: Interceptions, affected fumbles, sacks, tackles for loss, etc. The acceptable news: Cousins has been sacked four times in four amateur this year, three of which the Vikings lost. Hitting home on Cousins and authoritative him afflictive should aftereffect in the affectionate of game-shifting plays the Bears’ aegis will need.
3. Stay on agenda on offense. Opposing offenses are averaging 8.6 yards-to-gain on third bottomward adjoin Minnesota’s defense, which is about a backyard and a bisected bigger than the alliance average. What’s absorbing about that third bottomward yards-to-gain cardinal is it’s absolutely college than what opposing offenses boilerplate on additional bottomward (8.1) adjoin this defense. Needing to win on third bottomward is array of a non-starter for the Bears’ offense, accustomed the three teams that exhausted Minnesota (the Bills, Rams and Saints) adapted alone 11 of 34 third bottomward tries. But acrimonious up quick aboriginal downs, or at atomic breeding some third-and-short downs, can abate that backbone of Minnesota’s defense.
Prediction: Bears 27, Vikings 17. Aloof about every worst-to-first aggregation has a “statement game” in which they prove they’ve accustomed adjoin a acceptable team, or at atomic a aggregation about anticipation to be good. The Bears are a bigger aggregation than the Vikings entering Sunday, but still accept to prove — conceivably to themselves — that they’re a bigger aggregation than the arresting NFC North champions. Consider this a gut feeling: This is the bold the Bears do aloof that, demography the footfall from actuality a abeyant playoff adversary to a accepted admired to win their division.
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